Democrats gaining ground in Virginia's congressional races, new political analysis shows

Natalie Anderson, The Virginian-Pilot on Sep 30, 2026

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New political predictions for the election have shifted some local congressional races to be more competitive and favorable to Democrats.

Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, who represents the 2nd Congressional District, is running for reelection to her second term in a rematch against Democrat and former Congresswoman Elaine Luria, whom Kiggans ousted in the 2022 election. New analysis from political professor Larry Sabato and his team with Center for Politics at University of Virginia — dubbed Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” — shifts the 2nd District race, which had been projected to be a toss-up, to now lean more Democratic. Other candidates in that race include independents Matt Baker and Bishop Staten.

Republican Rep. Rob Wittman is running to keep his seat in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, with a challenge from Democrat Shannon Taylor. The Center for Politics shifts the 1st District to more of a toss-up, representing a shift from previous projections the race would lean Republican.

The analysis released Tuesday attributes the shift to a “lousy month of polling for Republicans.” It also states that polls are consistently showing Democrats are more enthused to vote this year.

“As September winds down, we are closing out what has been a tough month for Republicans,” reads the center’s analysis report. “By most measures, Democrats have expanded their lead on the House generic ballot and are in serious contention to flip the Senate.”

The Center for Politics analysis states that Virginia is expected to serve as a proxy for how the larger battle for the House may play out. All six of Virginia’s Democratic-held seats are fairly secure, and Democrats are serious contenders for the three Republican-held seats, including Kiggans’ and Wittman’s seats.

Kiggans’ district was considered one of the most evenly divided districts in the 2024 presidential election, but she’s now expected to have a harder time fending off what’s projected to be a “blue wave.”

“If Democrats go on to flip this seat, they are likely at least on track for the type of slim majority that they held after the 2020 elections,” the center’s analysis states.

Meanwhile, Wittman’s district will be more of a toss-up. Though President Donald Trump carried Virginia’s 1st Congressional District by 5 points in 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 outperformed former President Joe Biden in 2020. That puts the district as trending Democratic, though Wittman is considered “one of Republicans’ stronger incumbents.”

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