Matt Calkins: Julio Rodríguez among reasons Mariners are set for strong second half

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Jul 16, 2025

Published in Baseball

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SEATTLE — If that blown five-run lead vs. the New York Yankees spawned dejection, then these past three games should have spawned dopamine.

If getting swept by New York last week seemed like the catalyst to a second-half Seattle Mariners tailspin, then sweeping the Detroit Tigers over the weekend felt like the cure.

It isn’t easy being a Mariners fan. They tease and bait and generally bail on their postseason chances in the final week of the season. But right now — and feel free to flood my inbox in two and half months if I jinx it — they’re set up for a stellar second half.

If the season ended today, the Mariners (51-45) would be in the playoffs as the final American League wild-card team. They sit five games back of the Astros in the AL West and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Rays for that last postseason spot.

A potential nadir occurred last week, when a five-run lead in the eighth turned into a one-run loss in extra innings, thus allowing the Yankees to complete a sweep with three games left before the All-Star break. Then the Mariners — playing perhaps their finest stretch of baseball this season — swept the team with MLB’s best record in Detroit, scoring 35 runs in that trio of games.

For the Mariners to score 35 runs over any three-game stretch this season would have seemed far-fetched to most. This is the club that finished 21st in runs last season, 22nd in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) and 29th in batting average. Now, despite adding little in the offseason, they are eighth in runs, seventh in OPS and 13th in batting average. A fair amount of this is due to catcher Cal Raleigh raking 38 home runs before the All-Star break — but the effort is largely team wide.

So why think the M’s can keep their place in the wild-card race or even make a run at the division? A few reasons.

Their pitching is mostly healthy

True, Bryce Miller is still recovering from elbow inflammation, but he was struggling well before he went on the injury list. And his replacement, Emerson Hancock, hasn’t been much better — posting a 5.47 ERA in 15 starts this season. But Miller should be back relatively soon. And the other four guys? At the very least solid, and in some cases sizzling.

Bryan Woo earned his All-Star bid with a 2.75 ERA over 114 2/3 innings and has been a study in consistency. He has gone at least six innings in all 18 of his starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in all but four of them, and two runs or fewer in all but six.

Luis Castillo? Through 19 starts in 108 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 3.41 ERA — slightly better than his career average.

But the more auspicious stats come from Logan Gilbert and George Kirby — at least in terms of what we can expect from the Mariners in the second half. Gilbert was out for nearly two months between the end of April and middle of June. And though it was a bit rocky upon his return, he threw 5 1/3 shutout innings in his last start, which included nine strikeouts as his ERA dipped to 3.39.

Kirby, meanwhile, basically went off-roading in his first two starts after missing the first two months of the season (11 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings) but gave up two runs or fewer in six of his next eight starts. This is good news.

Julio Rodríguez is heating up

It seems as if Mariners fans are just going to have to live with the fact that their team’s center fielder struggles at the plate early in the season. Rodríguez has a 3.9 WAR (wins above replacement) — which is tied for 17th in MLB and on pace for the best of his career — but he has been less impressive with the wood. Fans might not like the fact that he is hitting just .252 with an OPS of .731, both well below his career marks.

But a home run in each of his past three games? Six RBIs over that stretch? The Mariners didn’t need any one player in these drubbings of the Tigers, but Julio was the face of that potent offense.

They have prospects to trade

Baseball America ranked Seattle as having the fifth-best farm system before the season. MLB.com has them fifth as well. Might it hurt parting ways with shortstop Colt Emerson? Absolutely. Might it sting watching outfielder Lazaro Montes go elsewhere as well? No doubt.

But as lackluster as many of the offseason or midseason trades orchestrated by Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto have been in years past — he’s always been able to keep that farm system strong.

In short? The M’s have a chance to make a big move at the trade deadline and not feel as if they’re depleted going forward. Will we see it happen?

That’s always the question with this team. But I’d be optimistic if I’m a fan. Years of disappointment might make them reluctant to be, but current circumstances say otherwise.

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