Democrat leads by razor-thin margin in special state Senate election in Florida

Shauna Muckle, Tampa Bay Times on Mar 24, 2026

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TAMPA, Fla. — Democrat Brian Nathan is leading his Republican opponent by a razor-thin margin in the Tampa-area special state Senate election to replace Jay Collins.

With most precincts reported, Nathan, a union leader and Navy veteran, led former state Rep. Josie Tomkow by less than half a percentage point, 50.2% to 49.8%. One precinct has yet to report its election day totals. Not all mail-in ballots have been counted, either.

If the margin remains less than half a percentage point, that triggers a machine recount. The recount would be held days later, according to the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections.

A victory by Nathan would represent an upset in a district that Collins, a Republican, won by almost 10 points in 2022. Collins left the seat vacant in August when Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him lieutenant governor.

Nathan’s performance is in keeping with a nationwide trend. In 20 state legislative races across the country, Democrats have improved upon former Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance by 10.5 points on average, according to reporting from Axios.

Senate District 14 has a Republican voter registration advantage that has only grown since Collins unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2022. The district covers much of Hillsborough County west of Interstate 275, including South and West Tampa, as well as suburbs like Town ‘N Country, Westchase, Carrollwood and Lutz.

More than a quarter of eligible voters cast their ballots in Tuesday’s special election. That’s an improvement compared to the last time Hillsborough County held a special legislative election in 2017. Turnout in the election for House District 58, which at the time covered parts of east Hillsborough, was just over 15%.

Even some who voted said they knew little about the candidates. About a dozen voters who spoke with the Tampa Bay Times said they cast a ballot either to support their party or because such civic engagement was the right thing to do.

Tomkow had two major advantages: a Republican registration advantage in the district and a sizable fundraising lead.

Registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 22,000 in the district as of last month. And Tomkow outspent Nathan more than 3-to-1. She also received more than $400,000 in in-kind contributions from the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

But Nathan said he sees parallels between himself and Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and machinists union leader who won a special election in a solid red state Senate district that Trump carried by 17 points. Rehmet was also vastly outspent by his Republican opponent.

Democrats had more cause to celebrate in Florida on Tuesday night. The Associated Press called a special election for a state House seat that covers Palm Beach County and Mar-a-Lago itself for Democrat Emily Gregory over her opponent, Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples.

In the Central Florida race for House District 51, Tomkow’s old seat, Republican Hilary Holley was projected to win over her Democratic challenger.

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