Thailand’s ruling conservative party clinched a surprisingly solid election win Sunday, marking the first victory this century for a party aligned with the country’s royalist establishment and a clear defeat for an emerging progressive movement.

The Bhumjaithai Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is set to secure 191 seats out of a possible 500 in the House of Representatives, according to preliminary results from the country’s Election Commission, with votes from about 94% of the polling stations counted. That’s almost triple its tally in the 2023 election.

The pro-democracy People’s Party, which had been leading in the pre-poll surveys, was on track for 115.

Anutin told reporters Sunday night in Bangkok, as early results showed promising results, that he was certain he had secured victory and planned to meet with party leaders about forming a coalition government. He spoke shortly after People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut conceded defeat.

“We think Thailand is now in a steady state, and we look forward to moving on with an even stronger cabinet and government,” Anutin said Sunday night.

A new government under Anutin may still be weeks away, as the election agency has up to 60 days to certify the results, which paves the way for a new parliamentary session.

The results are expected to offer a bump for markets, as a solid victory for Anutin and likely coalition partners clears out risks of sustained political deadlock or turmoil. It also ensures policy continuity, sustaining some handouts promoted by his party and easing the way for a new budget.

“An election outcome that keeps a Bhumjaithai-aligned establishment coalition in power would likely be viewed by investors as the most market-friendly scenario in the near term,” said Poon Panichpibool.

Thailand’s benchmark stock index was among the worst performers last year, it’s rallied almost 8% so far in 2026. Meanwhile, the baht climbed to the highest since 2021 this year, a strength policymakers have been trying to temper given the hit to exports and tourism.

The baht rose 0.5% to 31.366 in early trading on Monday, supported by the election result and gold rallying a second day. Stocks open at 10 a.m. local time.

The snap election was cast as a referendum on the People’s Party’s reform agenda, set against the pro-establishment Bhumjaithai as champion of the status quo. The loss is a dramatic turnabout for progressives, who surged onto the scene in 2023 after a wave of post-pandemic frustration following nearly a decade of military-aligned rule.

Anutin was also able to ride a surge in nationalism spurred by recent border clashes with Cambodia, tapping public concerns over security and sovereignty and pledging strong support for the military.

The win also underscores the resiliency of the conservative establishment that the People’s Party and its predecessors have been targeting — broadly seen as the overlapping interests of the military, royalists and economic elite.

While still short of a majority of seats, Bhumjaithai will likely be able to secure enough support for a coalition. Pheu Thai, aligned with the influential Shinawatra family and a natural ally to block the progressives, was on track for 76 seats. Anutin-aligned Klatham was heading for 58.

The Southeast Asian nation has seen 10 prime ministers since 2005, the last time a single party government was formed. That instability has been credited with creating a parallel paralysis in the economy, which has lagged behind its neighbors despite earlier promise as a standout success in Asia.

Those two decades of chronic political instability have seen Thailand go from an aspiring economy on track to join the ranks of rich nations, to a regional laggard beset by stagnant growth, soaring debt, widening inequality and a shrinking workforce.

In the short term, the lack of deep reform will offer some stability, if not providing long-term shifts that boost growth.

“From a business investor perspective, continuity of government and rapid implementation of policies are probably the most important outcomes,” said Andrew Shaw, Southeast Asia managing director for The Asia Group in Bangkok, who spent nearly three decades in the US Foreign Service, mostly in Asia and most recently as an economic counselor in Thailand.

A referendum that asks whether the current military-drafted constitution should be replaced, a proposal promoted by People’s Party but supported in broad terms by almost all parties, won the backing of 60% of voters.

Sunday’s election followed a crisis that saw the previous prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, ousted in August over an ethics violation related to her handling of the border clash with Cambodia. Her successor, Anutin, took office with the backing of the People’s Party on the condition he would call a snap election.

There were signs that Anutin and his party’s apparent success is partly due to its strategic maneuvers in an election system that favors first-past-the-post constituencies rather than the popular vote. Of the 100 seats up for grabs nationwide along party lines, the People’s Party was on course to win the most at about 28.

Bhumjaithai’s move to consolidate local political families under its banner also helped it win more seats. The strategy reflected lessons learned from 2023, when conservative votes were split among multiple candidates.

People’s Party had tempered some of its political aims since its predecessor, Move Forward, was dissolved after the 2023 vote for campaigning to amend the country’s controversial lese majeste law. It also sought to widen its appeal promoting seasoned technocrats and civil servants as possible cabinet members.

“They’ve tacked a little bit toward the realities of Thai politics,” said The Asia Group’s Shaw.

At the People’s Party headquarters in downtown Bangkok on Sunday night, a small number of supporters were seen following the results in a somber mood. Phattaranan Saengsrichai, a 21-year communications student, reflected a common desire for change among younger voters.

“Thailand has made no progress and actually regressed compared with other neighbors because of old political groups,” she said. “They have dominated Thai politics for so long and protect their own interests.”

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(With assistance from Emma Clark, Randy Thanthong-Knight, Pathom Sangwongwanich, Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Anuchit Nguyen, Matthew Burgess and Karl Lester M. Yap.)

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