Trump's agenda on Middle East trip: Lots of deals

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The first time President Donald Trump visited Riyadh in 2017, he posed with a ceremonial orb, took part in a traditional sword dance and secured an agreement by Saudi Arabia to purchase $350 billion in weaponry, the largest arms deal in U.S. history.

The sequel, coming eight years later — almost to the day — promises much the same in the way of pageantry and purchases, only more so.

Even before the trip, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman vowed he would invest about $600 billion over the four years of Trump’s presidency (Trump asked him to round it up to $1 trillion).

And although the orb will probably not make an appearance this time around, Trump is bringing with him a phalanx of business leaders for a Saudi-U.S. business summit Tuesday — the day he arrives — that will include BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Palantir Technologies’ Alex Karp, Tesla’s Elon Musk and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg.

The heads of other major firms, including IBM, Boeing, Qualcomm and Alphabet, also will attend. White House artificial intelligence and crypto czar David Sacks, meanwhile, is already in Riyadh.

Trump will then attend a summit with gulf leaders on Wednesday, travel to Qatar that same day and end the trip Thursday in the United Arab Emirates. There will be more gifts: The UAE has pledged $1.4 trillion in U.S. investment packages over the next decade.

“Trump is there to solidify a very close relationship,” said Ali Shihabi, a political and economic expert who is close to the Saudi government, adding that although he did not expect a breakthrough on security matters, the deals signed would nevertheless bring “economic ties and coordination to a very high level.”

Not to be outdone by its two regional competitors, Qatar is in discussions about the“possible transfer” of a luxury Boeing 747-8 to replace Air Force One.

Before departing on the current Air Force One, Trump found himself defending plans to accept the gift, which is thought to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. He dismissed those with concerns over the ethics and constitutionality of the gift as “stupid people,” suggesting he planned to proceed with it, a topic sure to fuel questions over his visit to Doha, the Qatari capital.

Trump also visited Saudi Arabia on the first international trip of his first term, breaking a presidential tradition of visiting U.S. allies and major trade partners such as the United Kingdom and European countries. That Trump chose the gulf region as his first destination, commentators say, reflects the Mideast’s growing centrality to the U.S. in terms of political and security partners. (Technically, this is not his first overseas trip since returning to the White House because he attended the recent funeral of Pope Francis.)

“The gulf nations succeeded in positioning themselves in a way that lets them play constructive roles in several issues,” said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain. He pointed out that Saudi Arabia has sponsored talks between Russia and Ukraine and was involved in peacemaking efforts in Sudan.

Qatar is a driving force in negotiations between Israel and Hamas and has helped to stabilize Syria. Oman, which is not on the itinerary but whose leader will take part in the summit, is hosting high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran.

“Trump is not tied to the protocols of other presidents. He sees an overlap in aims, whether political or commercial,” Alhasan said.

Israel is watching the visit with consternation on a host of fronts, expecting Trump to hear an earful from Arab governments on its continuing conflict with Hamas militants in Gaza and the role Israel is playing in the future of Syria. And Israeli officials are increasingly concerned that their voices will be drowned out as the Trump administration progresses in its negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.

Any hint from Trump that he would tolerate the Iranians continuing with a civilian nuclear program will send reverberations throughout Washington, particularly on Capitol Hill, where Republicans have long opposed allowing Iran to continue any enrichment of uranium on its soil.

Trump also appears unconcerned with limits placed by his predecessors on what countries can receive from the U.S. He has reportedly revoked the AI diffusion rule, the U.S. policy intended to control the export of advanced semiconductor chips and AI, paving the way for gulf nations to ramp up their already considerable advanced chip holdings.

That’s especially true for the UAE, whose $1.4-trillion investment will be heavily weighted toward AI. Meanwhile, MGX, an investment fund based in the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi, has pledged $100 billion in energy infrastructures and data centers in the U.S. to support AI.

At the same time, G42, another UAE-based AI firm, has divested from Chinese companies and partnered with Microsoft in an attempt to appease U.S. lawmakers.

There have also been reports that Trump will revive potential arms deals that were on the table from his first term but were never completed, including sales of F-35 fighter jets and Reaper drones to the UAE, and the co-production of advanced missiles with Saudi Arabia, said Prem Thakker, a partner with the global advisory firm DGA and a former official with the National Security Council under President Obama.

Another issue on the table could be nuclear power for Saudi Arabia. President Biden made supporting a civilian nuclear program for the kingdom contingent on Riyadh agreeing to a peace deal with Israel similar to the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements forged with the UAE, Bahrain and others during Trump’s first term.

Under Trump, that condition appears to have been dropped, with negotiations that could potentially allow Saudi Arabia to capitalize on its uranium reserves and a domestic enrichment program.

“And this means that traditional nonproliferation concerns over Saudi Arabia have really subsided over the last few years,” Thakker said. “Twenty years ago no one in the U.S. would have contemplated such an agreement.”

The trip dovetails with a raft of investments involving the Trump Organization. Its real-estate development arm, which is led by Trump’s son Eric, has announced since last year construction projects across the gulf region, including a $2-billion golf course in Qatar, an 80-story hotel and residential tower in Dubai and two Trump towers in Saudi Arabia — one in Riyadh and one in Jeddah.

Though the deals appear gargantuan, experts say financial realities will cut them down to size. Many point out that Saudi Arabia’s investments during Trump’s first term did not reach the $450 billion he mentioned (the figure includes nonmilitary spending). Even the most generous of calculations would put the Saudi investments at less than $300 billion, experts say.

Though its investments in the U.S. are likely to increase during Trump’s second term, Riyadh has focused much of its spending on gigaprojects such as NEOM. And current oil prices sitting below the government’s break-even price of around $100 a barrel means that it will be running a deficit, said David Butter, a Middle East energy expert at Chatham House, a think tank in London.

He added that the Saudi government and its colossal sovereign fund, the Public Investment Fund, both of which own a part of Saudi oil giant Aramco, have not received performance-linked dividends for this year. The result, Butter said, is a looming financial crisis.

“The investment numbers are fantasy,” he said.

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—Bulos reported from Riyadh and Wilner from Washington.