MANILA, Philippines — Philippine voters appear to have delivered a blow to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and a boost to the rival Duterte clan, whose members and allies outperformed expectations in Monday’s midterm elections.

Ex-President Rodrigo Duterte looks set to become mayor of Davao City despite his detention by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity, according to election results released by GMA News. His two sons lead other races.

But the clan’s biggest win is in the Senate, where Duterte-backed candidates are on course to win at least four of 12 seats up for grabs, more than surveys had indicated. That result may bode well for his daughter, impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, as it could discourage some senators from voting for her conviction in the upcoming trial in the chamber.

Markets are set to reopen on Tuesday after the election holiday, giving investors their first opportunity to react to an outcome that defied surveys.

Two-thirds of the 24-member Senate would be needed to convict Sara Duterte, which would pave the way for the vice president’s removal from office and derail any chance of a 2028 run for the presidency. Marcos-endorsed candidates look set to win just six of Senate seats, fewer than anticipated, amid widespread concerns about the cost of living and the dispute with his deputy.

“The results reflect the declining popularity of Marcos Jr., the resurgence of the Duterte brand, and the readmission of the traditional liberal opposition back into high politics,” said Anthony Lawrence Borja, an associate professor at De La Salle University in Manila. “It is a welcome surprise for liberals and an unwelcome one for the administration.”

Those liberals are two other candidates on course for Senate wins who were backed by Leni Robredo, a former vice president who ran against Marcos in 2022.

Official results may not be released for days, but as of 11:44 p.m. Monday the winning slate for the Senate appeared to be secure. The results raise questions about the ability of Marcos to press his agenda in his last three years in office, especially as he tries to attract investors and expand the economy by at least 6% this year after first-quarter growth missed estimates.

The president’s sister, Imee Marcos, is on course for re-election as a senator after casting off her brother to join Sara Duterte on the campaign trail.

While neither the president nor the vice president was on the ballot, they both campaigned across the archipelago of 114 million people.

The midterm election was essentially a referendum for both Marcos and his deputy, making it among the “most polarizing elections that we’ve ever had,” said Gary Ador Dionisio, Dean of School of Diplomacy and Governance at De La Salle College of Saint Benilde in Manila.

But even though the Dutertes apparently outperformed, political alliances often shift in the Philippines due to a lack of clear party lines, and the Senate trial still holds perils for the vice president.

After running on a joint ticket in 2022, the Marcos-Duterte relationship fractured, and last November Sara Duterte said that if she was murdered, she had arranged for revenge killings of Marcos and his wife. Her father, Rodrigo Duterte, had bragged of using a “death squad” to execute criminals, then called on the military to intervene to fix the nation’s “fractured” governance.

The vice president’s remarks, along with her alleged misuse of public funds, led to her impeachment by the House of Representatives. She denies the allegations.

Relations worsened in March, when Marcos allowed the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte and his transfer to the ICC in the Netherlands, accused of a role in the deaths of thousands during his war on drugs. The ex-president, now aged 80, is fighting the charges.

“Duterte tackled the drug problem,” said Jennifer Yandoc, a 44-year old mother of four in San Fernando City north of Manila.

Rodrigo Duterte’s youngest son and incumbent Davao mayor, Sebastian, is leading in the race to be his father’s deputy mayor. His eldest son, Paolo, is on course to keep his congressional seat.

More than 18,000 other national and local positions were contested. Voting was mostly peaceful, though at least one person died and several collapsed in stifling temperatures.

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(With assistance from Cecilia Yap, Ditas Lopez and Neil Jerome Morales.)

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