Martin Schram: Speak truth to the nuclear powerless
Published in Op Eds
Ever since those two mushroom clouds darkened the skies above the fiery hell that was Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the world’s two nuclear superpowers somehow found ways to work together – even in times of intense conflict – to prevent the world from plunging itself into all out nuclear war.
Yet, after 80 years without another nuke being detonated in war, the fear of The Bomb is as menacing as ever. Maybe more so. Our planet is a mess of powder kegs that are fused by regional, racial, and yes, even religiously driven hatreds.
This past week, we watched yet again as the reckless leaders of our planet’s nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan, seemed determined to pound and dare each other to be the first to do the worst.
But world leaders, including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, responded just matter-of-factly – issuing statements or making a phone call or two. No one was mounting the global pressure required to halt decades of India-Pakistani recklessness and finally rescue the planet.
Yet we know what can go wrong. I’m reminded of a day in 2002, when I was sitting in the Kremlin office of the former Soviet military marshal, Igor Sergeyev, who had commanded the nuclear forces and served as Russia’s defense minister. Now he was advising Russia’s still-new president, Vladimir Putin – and collaborating with U.S. officials to safeguard Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal that became poorly secured when the Soviet Union collapsed. They were making sure Russia’s so-called “loose nukes” didn’t fall into the hands of terrorists. I was working on a book, “Avoiding Armageddon,” that would also be a weeklong PBS documentary series.
As Sergeyev was speaking optimistically about how they were keeping the planet safe, combat scenes suddenly appeared on Sergeyev’s muted television set. India and Pakistan – were warring again over Kashmir, the bucolic area both nuclear countries claim. Sergeyev pointed at the screen, and down-shifted from optimism to pessimism. That’s where it can all quickly come apart, he said.
And this past week, world leaders mainly watched as those volatile nuclear nations fired escalating conventional strikes into each other’s heartland. It seemed more severe than ever. It started in Kashmir, of course. On April 22. Muslim-terrorists firing guns, apparently still based in Pakistani-controlled safe harbors, attacked picnicking tourists in predominantly Hindu-Indian controlled Kashmir. The gunmen asked each male picnicker if he was Hindu – those who said yes were shot dead as the women and children watched.
Then India bombed Pakistani sites linked to the terrorists. Soon they were bombing each other’s heartland. The UN’s Guterres issued a statement. Then Vice President JD Vance went on Fox News and came out forcefully for doing even less. Vance said Trump’s America can “try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit. But we’re not going to get involved in the middle of war that’s fundamentally none of our business…”
Too bad the Veep who is just a heartbeat (or ear-snip!) away from being Leader of the Free World wasn’t with me on yet another day in 2002. He could have heard Pakistan’s Brigadier General Feroz Khan tell me about his great fear about how the next India-Pakistan clash could spin out of control during the “fog of war” – and erupt into the planet’s first all-out nuclear war.
The two neighboring countries have nukes – but don’t have time, the general said. There is no ocean between them. Each has just minutes to decide if that’s really an incoming nuclear warhead – or if his nuclear arsenal is about to be wiped out. Use it or lose it? What if he launches what he thinks will be a retaliatory nuke, but discovers – too late – that the attacking missile just packed a conventional warhead? He just started the planet’s first nuclear war!
“Once the conventional war breaks out, the fog of war sets in,” Khan said. “And during the war you have deceptions. You have misperceptions. You have communication breakdowns. Things get heated up…”
This time, Secretary of Everything Marco Rubio pogo-sticked in from another crisis – and rescued Trump’s team from their Veep’s words. Rubio forged an India-Pakistan ceasefire that seemed to be at least a short-term peace for all who live in Kashmir’s mountain greenery — or on the planet Earth. Whew.
EPILOGUE: In 2002, a small delegation of youths from Pakistan and India, who were so proud their nations were nuclear powers, were taken to Hiroshima to witness the annual memorial of the atomic tragedy that ended World War II. It was a life-changing experience for some.
“I was proud of our Pakistani patriots, but now I’m against it,” said Pakistan’s Jeremy Mance. “When I came here and saw the real disasters… I really changed my mind.” And Sumin Shahain, from Islamabad, agreed. “It’s a vicious cycle of revenge and retaliation,” she said. “We have to stop.”
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