As the world awaits U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision on whether to join Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear program, many experts argue that Israel simply can’t do the job alone.

Its military lacks the heavy bombs and B-2 stealth jets needed to penetrate the uranium enrichment hall at the Fordow site hidden deep under a mountain near the holy city of Qom, whose destruction is viewed as key.

But there is a competing view and it was expressed by a top Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity: There are many options still on the table, this official replied, when asked how the mission could be achieved without the bunker busters in the U.S. arsenal.

Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said the same on Wednesday — without providing details — that without the U.S., Israel will find a creative solution to taking out Fordow.

A more official version of this was uttered by Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi in a radio interview this week. He said Israel can and will do it alone.

Some outside experts agree. One is David Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

Asked by Tablet Magazine this week whether Israel could do the job alone, he replied:

“Yeah, I think so. They could mine it during a commando raid. They could potentially crack the ceiling or undermine the support structure of the halls. They can make it very difficult to get into. Effectively that’s destroying it, if you can’t get in without months and months of work. Then when you get in, it’s more than likely most of the centrifuges are going to be broken.”

His reference to a commando raid is something others have focused on, including Kenneth Pollack of the Middle East Institute. They point to an operation Israeli troops carried out last September in Syria before former President Bashar al-Assad was driven from power.

The raid wasn’t publicly revealed till four months later. Then, the Israeli military offered details along with video taken during the raid. According to military spokesmen, 120 special forces were accompanied by dozens of aircraft striking deep in Syria. The raid eliminated what they said was an Iranian missile-production site deep in a mountainside.

The footage showed Israeli troops moving through a concrete-lined tunnel while being overseen by military officials inside an Israeli command center.

The raid has been widely praised for its daring in Israel, including by Netanyahu, and has been suggested as a model for a Fordow hit.

Another possibility: if Israel eliminates Iran’s air defense system around Fordow, as it says it’s doing, its own F-35s and F-15s, carrying not 30,000-pound but 2,000- and 4,000-lb bombs, could carry out repeated strikes over the site, eventually penetrating it.

All options involve risks, including U.S. aircraft with their massive loads. But Israel argues that the greatest risk is leaving Iran’s nuclear facilities intact and in the hands of the current government. And it says no matter what the U.S. decides, its own operation won’t stop until it achieves its goal.

What Bloomberg analysts say...

“If the US won’t enter the conflict, Israel could still choose to pursue a high-risk ground operation to breach and destroy Fordow from within. Any such operation would face enormous challenges — logistical complexity, long-distance travel deep into Iranian territory, and the risk of engagement with well-armed Iranian forces.”

— By Adam Farrar (Analyst) and Jennifer Welch (Analyst)

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